BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scaled Quail In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Scaled Quail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±733.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±733.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±733.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.51
20250.000.000.51
20260.000.000.51
20270.000.000.51
20280.000.000.51

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pear ValleyTEXAS192005
BeaverOKLAHOMA52018
ChildressTEXAS41991
RandlettOKLAHOMA31993
ClarendonTEXAS31994
WeinertTEXAS21992
MertzonTEXAS22019
BookerTEXAS22010
CookietownOKLAHOMA11984
ReedOKLAHOMA12000
HollisOKLAHOMA11995
WinchellTEXAS12013
GraybackTEXAS11991
HackberryTEXAS12021
RotanTEXAS11995
EldoradoTEXAS12000
HaskellTEXAS12021
SilverTEXAS12022
GirardTEXAS12023
LakeviewTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.