BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Great Basin has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
199Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 4.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 4.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.617
2026114.517
2027114.517
2028114.417
2029104.417

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon NwrNEVADA1162019
Dinner StaNEVADA1051993
Dobbin CreekNEVADA952018
Toiyabe NfNEVADA892024
PrincetonOREGON821985
Walker CanNEVADA802024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA762024
Lookout LakeOREGON711994
MizpahNEVADA672024
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA662024
BentonCALIFORNIA622024
Bald Mtn.NEVADA622024
CrowleyOREGON602024
Willow SpgOREGON591971
Flook LakeOREGON522024
DuboisIDAHO472024
Fandango CanOREGON472024
Blizzard GapOREGON442024
MidasNEVADA422024
BlitzenOREGON421993
Twin ButtesIDAHO412024
RanchograndeNEVADA402024
Lost RiverIDAHO382024
Green Mtn.OREGON382024
WagontireOREGON372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.