BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Great Basin has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 3.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 3.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026104.116
2027104.016
2028104.016
2029103.916
2030103.816

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon NwrNEVADA1162019
Dinner StaNEVADA1051993
Dobbin CreekNEVADA952018
Toiyabe NfNEVADA892024
PrincetonOREGON821985
Walker CanNEVADA802024
Lookout LakeOREGON711994
MizpahNEVADA672024
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA662024
Willow SpgOREGON591971
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA582025
Bald Mtn.NEVADA432025
BlitzenOREGON421993
DuboisIDAHO412025
RanchograndeNEVADA402024
CrowleyOREGON352025
Malheur NwrOREGON342022
Green Mtn.OREGON332025
EurekaNEVADA322024
Fandango CanOREGON322025
HenryIDAHO311983
Blizzard GapOREGON302025
WagontireOREGON292025
Grouse CreekUTAH292010
Blitzen 2OREGON252025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.