BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauArid-land birds

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.056.4
20273.20.036.4
20283.20.016.3
20293.20.006.3
20303.10.006.3

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS92025
HarperTEXAS52025
San SabaTEXAS42025
Allen CreekTEXAS42025
BoerneTEXAS32019
Indian MtnTEXAS32025
Dripping SpgTEXAS32025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
UtopiaTEXAS22024
FitzhughTEXAS21983
MontellTEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11985
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS12016
KempnerTEXAS12023
AdamsvilleTEXAS12025
LeanderTEXAS11993
RockspringTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.