BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.10–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.10–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.166.5
20263.30.156.5
20273.30.136.5
20283.30.126.5
20293.30.106.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS122024
Allen CreekTEXAS62024
RockspringTEXAS62024
Indian MtnTEXAS42024
BoerneTEXAS32019
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
UtopiaTEXAS22024
FitzhughTEXAS21983
HarperTEXAS22024
MontellTEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11985
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12023
PidcokeTEXAS12016
KempnerTEXAS12023
AdamsvilleTEXAS12024
Dripping SpgTEXAS12024
LeanderTEXAS11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.