BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+368%Since 1970
18Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 213% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+213%Change by 2029
0.37Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7695% range
±88.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.360.000.74
20260.360.000.75
20270.360.000.75
20280.370.000.75
20290.370.000.76

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Shields 2TEXAS52023
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA42022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA22024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22021
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
GraybackTEXAS22019
MertzonTEXAS22010
SilverTEXAS22024
LakeviewTEXAS22017
ReedOKLAHOMA12002
LookoutOKLAHOMA11974
PhrosoOKLAHOMA12024
WinchellTEXAS12024
WeinertTEXAS11977
ChildressTEXAS11992
RotanTEXAS12019
EldoradoTEXAS12023
WallTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.