BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+368%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 213% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+213%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 213% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.74
20260.360.000.75
20270.360.000.75
20280.370.000.75
20290.370.000.76

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shields 2TEXAS52023
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA42022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA22024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22021
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
GraybackTEXAS22019
MertzonTEXAS22010
SilverTEXAS22024
LakeviewTEXAS22017
ReedOKLAHOMA12002
LookoutOKLAHOMA11974
PhrosoOKLAHOMA12024
WinchellTEXAS12024
WeinertTEXAS11977
ChildressTEXAS11992
RotanTEXAS12019
EldoradoTEXAS12023
WallTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.