BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruffed Grouse In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±240.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA92014
Tick RidgeOHIO61995
Star TanneryVIRGINIA51985
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA51977
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA42006
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA41991
CooperstownNEW-YORK31968
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA31966
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA32007
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA32000
CarterKENTUCKY22005
SmithsburgMARYLAND21997
FinzelMARYLAND22014
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY22014
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22016
McdonoughNEW-YORK22015
CattaraugusNEW-YORK21983
S VandaliaNEW-YORK21996
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22019
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA22005
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA22015
WintersetOHIO21980
Shawnee S.F.OHIO21994
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA22014
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.