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Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±240.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA92014
Tick RidgeOHIO61995
Star TanneryVIRGINIA51985
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA51977
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA42006
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA41991
CooperstownNEW-YORK31968
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA31966
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA32007
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA32000
CarterKENTUCKY22005
SmithsburgMARYLAND21997
FinzelMARYLAND22014
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY22014
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22016
McdonoughNEW-YORK22015
CattaraugusNEW-YORK21983
S VandaliaNEW-YORK21996
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22019
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA22005
WatervilleNORTH-CAROLINA22015
WintersetOHIO21980
Shawnee S.F.OHIO21994
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA22014
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.