BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±264%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.22
20260.050.000.22
20270.040.000.22
20280.040.000.21
20290.040.000.21

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MerrillWISCONSIN112002
N FreedomWISCONSIN81971
ElderonWISCONSIN41979
HungerfordMICHIGAN32018
BravoMICHIGAN21994
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22007
HolwayWISCONSIN21988
Stevens PtWISCONSIN21990
ViroquaWISCONSIN21993
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN21988
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN22024
KielWISCONSIN22007
FestinaIOWA11989
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12016
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN11985
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11979
NashvilleMICHIGAN12000
MontereyMICHIGAN12001
RemusMICHIGAN12014
OlaMICHIGAN11977
JuniataMICHIGAN11999
North BranchMICHIGAN11989
TyreMICHIGAN11992
AdairMICHIGAN11992
RochesterMICHIGAN11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.