BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.14
20260.050.000.14
20270.040.000.14
20280.040.000.14
20290.040.000.14

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22017
Lake BuffumFLORIDA21995
MicanopyFLORIDA11991
RomeoFLORIDA12003
St AugustineFLORIDA12009
San AntonioFLORIDA12021
BelmoreFLORIDA12019
Polk CityFLORIDA12009
MabelFLORIDA12002
ChildsFLORIDA11977
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12006
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA11973
PinecrestFLORIDA12019
KenansvilleFLORIDA11973
IndiantownFLORIDA12002
SalvistaFLORIDA11967
DeanvilleFLORIDA12019
NobletonFLORIDA12024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA11989
Winter GardnFLORIDA12007
KissimmeeFLORIDA11992
PalmdaleFLORIDA11987
AripekaFLORIDA12010
AlvaFLORIDA11992
Island GroveFLORIDA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.