BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+197%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.46–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.46–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.420.94
20260.690.430.95
20270.700.440.96
20280.710.450.97
20290.720.460.98

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatherWISCONSIN62023
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA52021
AlmenaMICHIGAN42015
KnoxINDIANA32019
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN32023
Bell OakMICHIGAN32008
Belding 2MICHIGAN32023
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN32019
HolwayWISCONSIN31988
CadottWISCONSIN32024
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN32018
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN32024
South BendINDIANA21984
Columbia CtyINDIANA22022
PackertownINDIANA22004
ScottvilleMICHIGAN22019
BravoMICHIGAN22022
MontereyMICHIGAN22024
St CharlesMICHIGAN21990
No BradleyMICHIGAN22019
LapeerMICHIGAN22024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN22023
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN22019
MillvilleMINNESOTA22019
N BaltimoreOHIO22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.