BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+419%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
239Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruby-throated Hummingbird has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.51–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.51–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.470.85
20260.670.480.86
20270.680.490.87
20280.690.500.88
20290.700.510.89

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS102024
JulianNEBRASKA62023
Mt VernonILLINOIS52022
MarshallILLINOIS52024
MaplewoodINDIANA52021
HarveysburgOHIO51996
OhioMISSOURI42024
FrankfordMISSOURI42023
Kings CreekOHIO42007
WelchOKLAHOMA42022
MilroyINDIANA32010
MoreheadKANSAS32024
Trading PostKANSAS32024
DanvilleMISSOURI32024
New PointMISSOURI32023
Kahoka2MISSOURI32023
GeraldMISSOURI32024
MilfordMISSOURI32024
UnionMISSOURI31999
DarrtownOHIO32021
NewarkILLINOIS22021
GulfportILLINOIS22024
MilfordILLINOIS21989
AthensvilleILLINOIS22016
BradburyILLINOIS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.