BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.18–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.18–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.171.1
20260.610.181.1
20270.620.181.1
20280.620.181.1
20290.620.181.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA62024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA42009
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31975
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22017
BeggsOKLAHOMA22022
TatumsOKLAHOMA22021
DuncanOKLAHOMA22021
SchroederTEXAS21992
Oak GroveTEXAS21997
Peach CreekTEXAS21986
OakwoodTEXAS21980
Wolfe CityTEXAS21980
RhomeTEXAS22024
CayugaTEXAS22024
Blue RidgeTEXAS22019
YoakumTEXAS22005
BonnerTEXAS22012
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22023
LocoOKLAHOMA11985
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12021
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
CampbelltonTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.