BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-40%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Ruby-throated Hummingbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ruby-throated Hummingbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HuntleyMINNESOTA22019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22000
ZearingIOWA11995
MccallsburgIOWA12024
HartlandMINNESOTA12013
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12019
CourtlandMINNESOTA12012
BeltramiMINNESOTA11987
WylieMINNESOTA11999
ErieMINNESOTA11994
GryglaMINNESOTA12016
FranklinMINNESOTA12019
Big StoneMINNESOTA12000
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA12023
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA11982
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA12022
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12022
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12014
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12016
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA12024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA12013
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA12013
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.