BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Royal Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+141%Since 1976
17Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Royal Tern has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.19–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.19–2.395% range
±31.9%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.092.3
20261.20.122.3
20271.20.142.3
20281.20.162.3
20291.30.192.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Royal Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Padre Island PaisTEXAS412015
Bayside 3TEXAS142024
Oyster LakeTEXAS112024
VanderbiltTEXAS51975
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA31982
CreoleLOUISIANA31987
Grand IsleLOUISIANA32019
BaysideTEXAS32003
IndianolaTEXAS22024
StowellTEXAS22022
ChinquapinTEXAS22024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS22017
JuniorLOUISIANA11991
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12012
WinnieTEXAS11994
DanburyTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.