BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Pheasant In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGame birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
219Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ring-necked Pheasant In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.008.0
20272.60.007.8
20282.40.007.6
20292.20.007.4
20301.90.007.2

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ThurstonNEBRASKA562025
PiersonIOWA502025
College SpgsIOWA452004
College Spgs 2IOWA432025
WalesIOWA392025
LyonsNEBRASKA392025
GreenviewILLINOIS372025
BedfordIOWA372025
HudsonIOWA282025
FairburyILLINOIS272025
WilliamsburgIOWA262023
GazaIOWA252025
AustinMINNESOTA252023
Davis CornerIOWA242025
Le RoyMINNESOTA222025
Rock ValleyIOWA212025
Cedar ValleyIOWA191997
Red RockIOWA192025
Kankakee SandsINDIANA172025
MonticelloILLINOIS162025
WashtaIOWA162025
MurdockNEBRASKA162025
DinsdaleIOWA152025
Ash CreekMINNESOTA152025
BudaILLINOIS142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.