BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Pheasant In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGame birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Pheasant In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 17–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 17–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026311546
2027311646
2028311646
2029311646
2030321747

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedstoneMONTANA1772025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1652025
WestbyMONTANA1262025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA1252025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA1172025
TracyMINNESOTA1082025
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1022025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA1012025
WinsideNEBRASKA882003
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA862025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA852023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA842025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA832025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA802025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA792025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA762010
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA742025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA692025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA692025
TildenNEBRASKA662025
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA652014
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA622017
WorthingtonMINNESOTA602025
LambertMONTANA602025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA602025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.