BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 31 (95% range 16–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 31 (95% range 16–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025301544
2026301545
2027301545
2028301545
2029311646

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1262024
WestbyMONTANA1242024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA1112024
RedstoneMONTANA1102024
TracyMINNESOTA1092024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA982024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA982024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA932024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA932024
WinsideNEBRASKA882003
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA852023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA842024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA812024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA762010
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA732024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA672024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA652014
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA642024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA622017
ChandlerMINNESOTA572023
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA571999
TildenNEBRASKA562024
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA562023
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA552023
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA532024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.