BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Pheasant In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGame birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Pheasant In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.003.1
20270.900.003.0
20280.840.003.0
20290.790.002.9
20300.740.002.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EtheteWYOMING322025
LovellWYOMING262025
SpartaOREGON202025
Muddy CreekMONTANA172015
GeboWYOMING162025
OttoWYOMING152025
WorlandWYOMING142025
Church HillMONTANA132025
BridgeportOREGON132025
Pablo Res.MONTANA112025
ClarkWYOMING112025
Crane CreekIDAHO102019
LaurelMONTANA102025
RaynesfordMONTANA102025
KalispellMONTANA92025
PolsonMONTANA92025
MidvaleWYOMING92025
BoulderMONTANA82025
Pagil GulchMONTANA82025
Fort LoganMONTANA72025
TwickenhamOREGON72025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON62012
TensleepWYOMING62025
Willow CreekMONTANA51981
Willow Creek 2MONTANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.