BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Pheasant In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.003.1
20260.900.003.0
20270.840.003.0
20280.790.002.9
20290.730.002.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaurelMONTANA872022
MidvaleWYOMING302024
WorlandWYOMING212024
GeboWYOMING192024
LovellWYOMING182024
Muddy CreekMONTANA172015
EtheteWYOMING172024
KalispellMONTANA132024
Crane CreekIDAHO102019
BoulderMONTANA102024
Church HillMONTANA92024
FrannieWYOMING92024
BridgeportOREGON82022
ClarkWYOMING72024
Deer ParkWASHINGTON62012
PolsonMONTANA52024
Willow CreekMONTANA51981
Pablo Res.MONTANA52024
OttoWYOMING52024
CrowheartWYOMING52021
NinemileMONTANA42013
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA42007
TwickenhamOREGON42024
BasinWYOMING42024
NaplesIDAHO32008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.