BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-61%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2020 — from 0.10 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±281.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2020 — from 0.10 in 2015 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.070.000.26
20170.070.000.26
20180.070.000.26
20190.070.000.26
20200.070.000.26

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndiantownFLORIDA42015
Merritt IslFLORIDA41999
Plantation KFLORIDA32002
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22011
MabelFLORIDA12003
Winter GardnFLORIDA11996
Pleasant GrFLORIDA12009
HomesteadFLORIDA12014
AripekaFLORIDA12010
Weaver StnFLORIDA12001
Citrus ParkFLORIDA12007
Shawano 2FLORIDA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.