BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 746% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+746%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 746% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.318
2026137.518
2027137.718
2028137.918
2029138.119

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA2952024
GlasgowMONTANA2542024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA922024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA722024
Ester LakeMONTANA712024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA682024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA622024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA592014
Sun RiverMONTANA562024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA442024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA412023
AppletonMINNESOTA402024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA292023
Big StoneMINNESOTA242012
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA232024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA212024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA202022
Great FallsMONTANA192021
WhitlashMONTANA182024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA182022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA182024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA172024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA172013
WorthingtonMINNESOTA162016
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.