BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Reddish Egret In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Reddish Egret in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Reddish Egret has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Reddish Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 154% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±631.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+154%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±631.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Reddish Egret in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 154% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±631.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.170.000.43
20230.170.000.43
20240.170.000.43
20250.170.000.43
20260.170.000.43

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Reddish Egret in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merritt IslFLORIDA42011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA32021
Plantation KFLORIDA21995
Weaver StnFLORIDA22017
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA22014
Dale MabryFLORIDA11971
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12019
SalvistaFLORIDA11972
Boca RatonFLORIDA11974
Key LargoFLORIDA11989
Punta GordaFLORIDA12002
Shawano 2FLORIDA12011
Card SoundFLORIDA12011
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA12004
CorbettFLORIDA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.