BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Great Basin has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+184%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
262Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Great Basin: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Great Basin is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 3.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Great Basin is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 3.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.94.6
20273.82.94.7
20283.82.94.7
20293.93.04.7
20303.93.04.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Malheur NwrOREGON512022
DorrisCALIFORNIA292019
MacdoelCALIFORNIA252019
MerrillOREGON242022
Modoc Point 2OREGON212025
DeschutesOREGON182025
JosephOREGON152025
LikelyCALIFORNIA142025
Cedar HillIDAHO122024
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA112025
DuboisIDAHO112024
Modoc PointOREGON112018
Gardnerville 2NEVADA102025
Lone RockOREGON102024
Ewan 2WASHINGTON102025
LeadoreIDAHO92024
Majors PlaceNEVADA92025
Alvord LakeOREGON92025
CraneOREGON92024
Trout CreekOREGON92025
HikoNEVADA82025
Badger CreekOREGON82025
ZumwaltOREGON82005
MaldenWASHINGTON82025
PomeroyWASHINGTON82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.