BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Red-tailed Hawk in BCR 4 has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-26%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.010.32
20260.160.010.32
20270.160.010.32
20280.160.010.32
20290.160.000.32

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CircleALASKA21987
NorthwayALASKA22012
Nicholai SlALASKA22017
Porcupine R.ALASKA22002
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA22022
EagleALASKA12002
Chatanika RALASKA12023
Birch LakeALASKA12001
SlanaALASKA12024
Tower BluffsALASKA12007
ChistochinaALASKA12024
MonahanALASKA11991
CantwellALASKA12001
MatanuskaALASKA11982
L SalchaALASKA12006
Kenny LakeALASKA12024
SourdoughALASKA11994
Bear CreekALASKA11991
ChickenALASKA12023
Swan Lake RdALASKA12011
Anchor RiverALASKA12008
Lake LouiseALASKA12011
Burma RoadALASKA12011
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA12016
ColdfootALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.