BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+130%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 160% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.48–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 160% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.48–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.421.4
20260.940.431.5
20270.960.451.5
20280.970.461.5
20290.990.481.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafitteLOUISIANA51978
RichardLOUISIANA42017
HackberryLOUISIANA32013
Forked IslandLOUISIANA32019
McfaddinTEXAS32016
EstherLOUISIANA22024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22019
KatyTEXAS22024
Rock IslandTEXAS22024
San PedroTEXAS22023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS22023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22015
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
MauriceLOUISIANA12023
KaplanLOUISIANA12023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12014
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
VintonLOUISIANA12009
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12018
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA12011
PetronilaTEXAS12006
Hinkles FerTEXAS12022
IndianolaTEXAS12023
WinnieTEXAS12023
StowellTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.