BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.76–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.76–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.742.9
20271.80.742.9
20281.80.752.9
20291.80.752.9
20301.80.762.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO82017
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Ft. DavisTEXAS62023
CornudasTEXAS52018
ComstockTEXAS42025
Hot SpringsTEXAS42019
MarathonTEXAS42025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
EngleNEW-MEXICO31989
SlaughterTEXAS32006
Dove Mtn.TEXAS32006
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22023
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO22019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024
OzonaTEXAS22014
Casa PiedraTEXAS22021
LangtryTEXAS22000
CastolonTEXAS22019
PresidioTEXAS22025
Devils R CynTEXAS22025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.