BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.86–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.86–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.833.0
20261.90.843.0
20271.90.843.0
20281.90.853.0
20291.90.863.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO82017
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Ft. DavisTEXAS62023
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO52024
LongfellowTEXAS52024
CornudasTEXAS52018
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO42024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO42024
Hot SpringsTEXAS42019
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32023
EngleNEW-MEXICO31989
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO32024
SlaughterTEXAS32006
Dove Mtn.TEXAS32006
MarathonTEXAS32023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22023
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO22019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024
ComstockTEXAS22023
Black GapTEXAS22022
OzonaTEXAS22014
Casa PiedraTEXAS22021
LangtryTEXAS22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.