BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.863.1
20262.00.863.1
20272.00.873.1
20282.00.873.1
20292.00.883.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunizona 2ARIZONA102024
SunizonaARIZONA71997
San SimonARIZONA62024
CutterARIZONA62014
BlueARIZONA51990
PomereneARIZONA42024
RedingtonARIZONA42023
McnealARIZONA42024
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
Bartlett ResARIZONA32024
AmadoARIZONA32022
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
SprucedaleARIZONA32023
PrescottARIZONA22017
Mormon LakeARIZONA21974
Aztec PeakARIZONA21977
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22023
SahuaritaARIZONA22023
Happy JackARIZONA22024
Carr MtnARIZONA22024
PortalARIZONA22024
DragoonARIZONA22008
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.