BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+90%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.92–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.92–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.893.1
20272.00.903.2
20282.00.913.2
20292.00.913.2
20302.00.923.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA82025
PatagoniaARIZONA72025
SunizonaARIZONA71997
San SimonARIZONA62024
CutterARIZONA62014
Clay SpringARIZONA62025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA62025
BlueARIZONA51990
AlpineARIZONA42025
AmadoARIZONA42025
McnealARIZONA42024
SprucedaleARIZONA42025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42025
WilliamsARIZONA32025
Bartlett ResARIZONA32024
RedingtonARIZONA32025
Carr MtnARIZONA32025
PortalARIZONA32025
PrescottARIZONA22025
Mormon LakeARIZONA21974
Aztec PeakARIZONA21977
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22023
SahuaritaARIZONA22023
DragoonARIZONA22008
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.