BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.33.0
20272.21.33.0
20282.21.33.0
20292.21.43.0
20302.21.43.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cabeza PrietARIZONA112025
Organ PipeARIZONA112023
Cactus ForestARIZONA82025
DatelandARIZONA62025
Palo VerdeARIZONA62013
OnyxCALIFORNIA62015
InyokernCALIFORNIA62024
FlynnCALIFORNIA61996
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA61978
LukevilleARIZONA51981
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA52025
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA52025
CimaCALIFORNIA52021
QuartzsiteARIZONA42025
Gila BendARIZONA42025
WickenburgARIZONA42023
HopeARIZONA42009
Cutter 2ARIZONA42018
Bates WellARIZONA42023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA42024
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA42009
WikieupARIZONA32024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32024
Red RockARIZONA32014
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.