BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 5.0–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 5.0–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.94.87.0
20265.94.87.0
20276.04.97.1
20286.04.97.1
20296.15.07.2

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AthloneCALIFORNIA332007
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA242024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA202011
OnealsCALIFORNIA182024
HughsonCALIFORNIA172024
HollisterCALIFORNIA142011
SangerCALIFORNIA142024
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA132024
MoragaCALIFORNIA132024
VentucopaCALIFORNIA122002
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA122024
MorenoCALIFORNIA112024
SisquocCALIFORNIA112014
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA112024
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA112023
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA92024
AtwaterCALIFORNIA92012
CoyoteCALIFORNIA92024
LivermoreCALIFORNIA91991
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA82024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA82024
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA82023
WestleyCALIFORNIA82024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA82024
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA82019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.