BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+335%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
373Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.82–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.82–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.771.1
20260.960.781.1
20270.970.801.2
20280.990.811.2
20291.00.821.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilliamsportMARYLAND82024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA62019
StonecreekOHIO62024
LovellTENNESSEE62019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE62019
StevensonALABAMA52024
Mountain CtyGEORGIA52024
High PointNEW-JERSEY52023
OmegaOHIO52024
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA52024
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY42024
DoverNEW-JERSEY42023
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA42016
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA42024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA42022
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA42024
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA42009
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA42018
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA42024
GreensportALABAMA32024
BrooksvilleALABAMA32023
OneontaALABAMA32019
Pleasant HillGEORGIA32024
Potomac ParkMARYLAND32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.