BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+277%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
374Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.80–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.80–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.741.1
20270.950.761.1
20280.960.771.2
20290.980.781.2
20300.990.801.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA62025
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA62025
LovellTENNESSEE62019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE62019
StevensonALABAMA52024
WilliamsportMARYLAND52025
High PointNEW-JERSEY52023
OmegaOHIO52024
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA52024
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA52025
DoverNEW-JERSEY42023
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA42016
DresdenOHIO42025
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA42024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA42022
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA42009
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA42018
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA42024
GreensportALABAMA32024
KymulgaALABAMA32025
OneontaALABAMA32019
Pleasant HillGEORGIA32024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA32025
Potomac ParkMARYLAND32021
Whitney PtNEW-YORK32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.