BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.41.01.9
20261.51.01.9
20271.51.11.9
20281.51.12.0
20291.51.12.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarrisburgARKANSAS62012
BrousvilleLOUISIANA62024
AugustaARKANSAS52001
River RoadLOUISIANA52024
BlodgettMISSOURI52024
EudoraARKANSAS42016
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
SaffellARKANSAS32018
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS32021
EnglandARKANSAS32022
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA32008
MoonMISSISSIPPI32021
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI32024
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32024
DeventerMISSOURI32023
HaytiMISSOURI32021
HughesARKANSAS22022
DellARKANSAS22024
GillettARKANSAS22016
Augusta 2ARKANSAS22016
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22013
BardwellKENTUCKY22001
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22023
RayvilleLOUISIANA22008
FloydLOUISIANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.