BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.73 (95% range 0.39–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.73 (95% range 0.39–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.371.1
20270.720.381.1
20280.720.381.1
20290.720.391.1
20300.730.391.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CanadianOKLAHOMA52017
AshdownARKANSAS42023
Easton 2TEXAS42025
StarkARKANSAS32023
LockesburgARKANSAS32019
Mer RougeLOUISIANA32008
De QuincyLOUISIANA32019
Fishville 2LOUISIANA32025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA32025
MatoyOKLAHOMA32025
CrossroadsTEXAS32018
Chandler 2TEXAS32024
Old MiloARKANSAS22014
StampsARKANSAS22023
BlakelyARKANSAS21995
Dry ForkARKANSAS22023
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS22025
Four LakesARKANSAS22001
DerryLOUISIANA21988
Fort PolkLOUISIANA21975
ManyLOUISIANA21991
Flat CreekLOUISIANA22015
Derry 2LOUISIANA22025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA22025
BlancoOKLAHOMA22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.