BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.12.1
20271.61.12.1
20281.61.12.1
20291.61.22.1
20301.61.22.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PackertownINDIANA92004
WhitewaterMINNESOTA92000
OmroWISCONSIN72001
EdenWISCONSIN72025
KnoxINDIANA52025
Columbia CtyINDIANA52024
Le CenterMINNESOTA52023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA52022
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN52025
MottvilleMICHIGAN42025
GlenwoodMINNESOTA42019
LockportOHIO42025
ManitowocWISCONSIN42021
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN42025
GrimmsWISCONSIN42021
BeloitWISCONSIN42025
North BranchMICHIGAN31998
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN31977
DeckervilleMICHIGAN32024
CohoctahMICHIGAN32024
HartlandMICHIGAN31996
New BuffaloMICHIGAN32014
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN32019
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA32025
N BaltimoreOHIO32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.