BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.44.1
20263.22.44.1
20273.32.44.1
20283.32.54.2
20293.42.54.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CashionOKLAHOMA192024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA142024
SicklesOKLAHOMA132021
DouglasOKLAHOMA112022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA101994
HendleyNEBRASKA92024
ReedOKLAHOMA92019
JewellKANSAS82005
CookietownOKLAHOMA82006
KanopolisKANSAS72024
LoganKANSAS72022
JetOKLAHOMA72024
CoatsKANSAS62024
CovertKANSAS62024
Jewell 2KANSAS62024
DamarKANSAS62016
SewardNEBRASKA62024
ArthurNEBRASKA62024
RandlettOKLAHOMA62024
VerdenOKLAHOMA62017
WakitaOKLAHOMA62016
AshlandKANSAS52021
BeloitKANSAS52003
Liberty 2NEBRASKA52007
BerwynNEBRASKA52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.