BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.42.3
20271.91.52.3
20281.91.52.4
20292.01.52.4
20302.01.62.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArsenalCOLORADO122015
Arsenal 2COLORADO122025
GilpinCOLORADO112025
Last Chance 2COLORADO92025
HaswellCOLORADO92024
Adams Co.COLORADO82022
PanhandleTEXAS82022
Last ChanceCOLORADO72016
NunnCOLORADO72021
CrowleyCOLORADO62024
ElbertCOLORADO62024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA62025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62021
PritchettCOLORADO52025
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO52023
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA52025
KiowaCOLORADO42018
Wildhorse LCOLORADO42025
Kiowa 2COLORADO42025
KirkCOLORADO42023
NeegrandeCOLORADO42025
EdlerCOLORADO42025
MarslandNEBRASKA42021
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42025
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.