BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+157%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.42.3
20261.91.52.3
20271.91.52.3
20282.01.52.4
20292.01.62.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arsenal 2COLORADO172024
ArsenalCOLORADO122015
HaswellCOLORADO92024
GilpinCOLORADO82024
Adams Co.COLORADO82022
PanhandleTEXAS82022
Last ChanceCOLORADO72016
NunnCOLORADO72021
CrowleyCOLORADO62024
TrincheraCOLORADO62022
Last Chance 2COLORADO62024
ElbertCOLORADO62024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62021
YoderWYOMING62024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO52023
CrawfordNEBRASKA52024
FloydadaTEXAS52022
KiowaCOLORADO42018
Kiowa 2COLORADO42024
StonehamCOLORADO42019
KirkCOLORADO42023
NeegrandeCOLORADO42024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO42023
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42024
MarslandNEBRASKA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.