BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+899%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.5–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.5–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.42.3
20271.91.42.3
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.42.4
20301.91.52.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MayoworthWYOMING122018
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA82015
St XavierMONTANA72010
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA62024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
ShawmutMONTANA52025
Reed PointMONTANA52025
AlbionMONTANA52025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA52025
KayceeWYOMING52022
SavageMONTANA42021
Miles CityMONTANA42025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA41991
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
RecluseWYOMING42024
SussexWYOMING42025
LuskWYOMING42025
Two DotMONTANA32024
IngomarMONTANA32024
BrandenbergMONTANA32025
PowdervilleMONTANA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.