BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
236Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.971.8
20271.40.981.8
20281.41.001.8
20291.41.01.8
20301.41.01.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BufordCOLORADO82025
San LuisCOLORADO72025
WalsenburgCOLORADO72025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO72025
MoffatCOLORADO62025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO62009
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO62016
Weston PassCOLORADO52000
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO52025
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO52025
Uintah NfUTAH51992
ShivwitzUTAH52025
KamasUTAH52025
FalfaCOLORADO42025
Wilson CreekCOLORADO42025
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO42025
Animas 2COLORADO42025
MesitaCOLORADO42024
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO41996
AltonahUTAH42015
GooseberryUTAH42025
Wellington 3UTAH42024
Fox ParkWYOMING42000
TsaileARIZONA32018
Peach SpringARIZONA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.