BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Nevada has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-34%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.28–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.28–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.291.4
20260.860.291.4
20270.860.291.4
20280.860.291.4
20290.860.281.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SattleyCALIFORNIA92024
GoumazCALIFORNIA92011
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA52008
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32021
PaxtonCALIFORNIA32024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA32024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA22013
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22019
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21993
Forest HillCALIFORNIA22014
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22019
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22019
WawonaCALIFORNIA22023
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA22005
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11986
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11975
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12018
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12019
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12021
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12023
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12013
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12023
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.