BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+281%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.851.8
20271.30.861.8
20281.40.871.8
20291.40.881.8
20301.40.891.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New SomersetOHIO81993
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA62024
CastileNEW-YORK52025
BranchportNEW-YORK42024
PittsfieldOHIO42024
LenoxOHIO42024
LucerneOHIO42025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK31995
RomulusNEW-YORK31997
TrumansburgNEW-YORK32023
OrleansNEW-YORK32025
NashvilleNEW-YORK32018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK32023
ArgyleNEW-YORK32024
CrescentNEW-YORK32024
WaylandOHIO32017
GarrettsvileOHIO31991
Valley CityOHIO32025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA32022
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA32025
BristolVERMONT32025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK22024
MacdougallNEW-YORK22024
RushvilleNEW-YORK22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.