BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Northern Rockies has surged: up 212% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+212%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
218Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Northern Rockies: up 212% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.52.5
20262.11.62.6
20272.11.62.6
20282.11.62.6
20292.11.62.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockMONTANA112024
PolsonMONTANA102024
Pablo Res.MONTANA102024
ChewelahWASHINGTON92021
East Glacier ParkMONTANA72024
Church HillMONTANA72024
Clyde ParkMONTANA72024
Malheur Res.OREGON72023
TwickenhamOREGON72024
CrowheartWYOMING72016
Green RiverWYOMING71984
NaplesIDAHO62024
EllistonMONTANA62024
Mount VernonOREGON62024
MadrasOREGON62024
SilviesOREGON62024
CarterWYOMING62016
St MaryMONTANA52008
Wise RiverMONTANA52022
St. Mary 2MONTANA52024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA52024
BridgeportOREGON52022
Clover CreekOREGON52024
UnityOREGON52024
CodyWYOMING52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.