BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.001.5
20260.190.001.4
20270.150.001.4
20280.110.001.4
20290.070.001.3

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OcalaFLORIDA92024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA92024
RomeoFLORIDA82024
CroomFLORIDA42024
CitrusFLORIDA42024
MicanopyFLORIDA31991
AlturasFLORIDA31986
SalvistaFLORIDA31979
Ft MccoyFLORIDA32002
NobletonFLORIDA32024
GardnerFLORIDA31999
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32024
GoetheFLORIDA32024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22009
Polk CityFLORIDA22013
ChildsFLORIDA22015
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22010
DeanvilleFLORIDA22013
KissimmeeFLORIDA22013
SandyFLORIDA22004
PalmdaleFLORIDA21993
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22024
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA22010
Green SwampFLORIDA22019
Ridge HarborFLORIDA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.