BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.002.9
20271.40.002.9
20281.40.002.9
20291.30.002.8
20301.30.002.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DundeeMISSISSIPPI72022
ShawLOUISIANA62024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI62025
DeventerMISSOURI62023
MayflowerLOUISIANA52025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI51993
MoonMISSISSIPPI52018
HughesARKANSAS42025
EnglandARKANSAS42025
Port AllenLOUISIANA42005
Baton RougeLOUISIANA42025
South BendARKANSAS32025
KelsoARKANSAS32016
WilsonARKANSAS32024
FloydLOUISIANA32021
GonzalesLOUISIANA32019
TchulaMISSISSIPPI31971
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI32022
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32025
SaffellARKANSAS22019
DellARKANSAS22024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22025
FreetownLOUISIANA21984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.