BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.003.7
20260.760.003.5
20270.640.003.4
20280.530.003.3
20290.410.003.2

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MadisonMISSOURI482024
Kahoka2MISSOURI332024
StillwellILLINOIS242023
EmdenMISSOURI222024
RobinsonILLINOIS212023
BelleviewILLINOIS202024
JamestownINDIANA162024
College SpgsIOWA162004
TrentonMISSOURI162024
WallaceINDIANA152024
WarrenMISSOURI151983
SticklervillMISSOURI152024
FrankfordMISSOURI152024
Mt HamillIOWA142024
LurayMISSOURI142024
AuburnMISSOURI142024
MurdockNEBRASKA142024
DecaturINDIANA132024
AthensvilleILLINOIS122024
ConcordILLINOIS122024
Red RockIOWA122024
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
KirksvilleMISSOURI122024
College Spgs 2IOWA112023
BloomvilleOHIO112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.