BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 87% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 87% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.003.9
20270.900.003.8
20280.790.003.7
20290.680.003.6
20300.570.003.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MadisonMISSOURI482024
Kahoka2MISSOURI332024
MurdockNEBRASKA292025
AthensvilleILLINOIS262025
ConcordILLINOIS252025
TrentonMISSOURI232025
FrankfordMISSOURI232025
EmdenMISSOURI222024
RobinsonILLINOIS212023
LurayMISSOURI202025
BelleviewILLINOIS182025
DecaturINDIANA172025
College SpgsIOWA162004
WallaceINDIANA152024
WarrenMISSOURI151983
KirksvilleMISSOURI152025
JamestownINDIANA142025
IrvingtonNEBRASKA132025
ExlineIOWA122025
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
LacledeMISSOURI122025
McfallMISSOURI122025
Duncan MillsILLINOIS112025
PaysonILLINOIS112025
EubanksILLINOIS112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.