BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-94%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±211.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.36
20260.000.000.36
20270.000.000.36
20280.000.000.36
20290.000.000.36

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NobleOKLAHOMA72018
SchroederTEXAS31977
KosseTEXAS31994
OsageTEXAS31970
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21977
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22018
Oak GroveTEXAS21986
OakwoodTEXAS21980
ThorntonTEXAS21980
Wolfe CityTEXAS21982
PaigeTEXAS22015
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12017
LocoOKLAHOMA11984
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12006
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12023
BeggsOKLAHOMA12004
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12015
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12007
TatumsOKLAHOMA12021
DuncanOKLAHOMA12021
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12009
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11984
GauseTEXAS11990
Peach CreekTEXAS11989
Massey LakeTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.