BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.64.5
20263.01.54.5
20273.01.54.5
20282.91.54.4
20292.91.44.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS372024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA292022
PhillipsburgKANSAS212022
LoganKANSAS182022
BoelusNEBRASKA132022
KanopolisKANSAS122024
Jewell 2KANSAS122024
JewellKANSAS112005
JamestownKANSAS112024
Liberty 3NEBRASKA112024
ChambersNEBRASKA112023
SumnerNEBRASKA102024
HendleyNEBRASKA102024
AshlandKANSAS92021
HanoverKANSAS92023
HollenbergKANSAS92023
PetersburgNEBRASKA92023
RinggoldNEBRASKA92023
LibertyNEBRASKA82003
WoodwardOKLAHOMA82024
St JohnKANSAS72019
HodgesKANSAS72014
BartlettNEBRASKA71976
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA72024
ErickOKLAHOMA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.