BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.5–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.5–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.64.6
20273.11.64.6
20283.01.54.5
20293.01.54.5
20303.01.54.5

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS222025
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA212025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA152025
Jewell 2KANSAS142025
BoelusNEBRASKA132022
WoodwardOKLAHOMA132025
JewellKANSAS112005
SurpriseNEBRASKA112025
PetersburgNEBRASKA112025
NenzelNEBRASKA112025
HanoverKANSAS102025
HamptonNEBRASKA102025
GrimesOKLAHOMA102025
AshlandKANSAS92021
Liberty 3NEBRASKA92025
LibertyNEBRASKA82003
SumnerNEBRASKA82025
St JohnKANSAS72019
HollenbergKANSAS72025
HodgesKANSAS72014
BartlettNEBRASKA71976
Swan LakeNEBRASKA72025
ErickOKLAHOMA72024
BeaverOKLAHOMA72018
WellingtonKANSAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.