BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.75
20260.300.000.74
20270.300.000.73
20280.290.000.73
20290.290.000.72

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA332024
CrawfordNEBRASKA112024
PaxtonNEBRASKA92016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA72024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA72024
HardestyOKLAHOMA32015
FeltOKLAHOMA32024
LingleWYOMING32024
PinneoCOLORADO22009
AbarrCOLORADO22024
GroverCOLORADO22021
KirkCOLORADO22023
JulesburgCOLORADO22021
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023
WallaceKANSAS22018
WinonaKANSAS22018
Agate 2NEBRASKA22023
BrownsonNEBRASKA22021
SedanNEW-MEXICO22015
PepNEW-MEXICO22024
LoganNEW-MEXICO22024
HookerOKLAHOMA22023
YoderWYOMING22015
FlemingCOLORADO12006
KiowaCOLORADO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.