BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+152%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.25–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.25–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.211.1
20270.680.221.1
20280.690.231.1
20290.700.241.2
20300.710.251.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA192025
BrandenbergMONTANA142025
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA62025
CrookstonNEBRASKA42025
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42005
Cabin CreekMONTANA32023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32019
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA32014
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Moskee 3WYOMING32025
PowdervilleMONTANA22025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22023
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21973
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.