BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.181.0
20260.620.191.1
20270.630.201.1
20280.640.211.1
20290.650.221.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA302022
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA152024
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA122024
CrookstonNEBRASKA72024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA62024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42005
Cabin CreekMONTANA32023
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA32014
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22023
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21973
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21973
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA22010
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22022
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA22014
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.