BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.47
20260.170.000.46
20270.160.000.46
20280.160.000.46
20290.160.000.45

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO112024
LattasburgOHIO102024
PittsfieldOHIO82024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA41993
PulaskiNEW-YORK31974
OgdensburgNEW-YORK31979
OrleansNEW-YORK21996
E YoungstownNEW-YORK21979
WatertownNEW-YORK21972
Alder CreekNEW-YORK21986
NaplesNEW-YORK21993
WaylandOHIO22010
MaysvilleOHIO22012
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA21980
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11982
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK11981
CayugaNEW-YORK11992
RomulusNEW-YORK11976
MacdougallNEW-YORK11983
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11977
RushvilleNEW-YORK11971
MendonNEW-YORK11987
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11990
HamburgNEW-YORK12022
West SenecaNEW-YORK11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.