BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.20
20260.000.000.20
20270.000.000.20
20280.000.000.20
20290.000.000.20

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RiverMINNESOTA72024
CathroMICHIGAN41988
BerglandMICHIGAN21979
IshpemingMICHIGAN21994
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN21978
FredericMICHIGAN21985
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN22011
Sand LakeMICHIGAN22024
Isabella 2MICHIGAN22023
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22024
CromwellMINNESOTA21969
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
Little ForkMINNESOTA21988
WaskishMINNESOTA21981
GreenbushMINNESOTA22001
Grand ViewWISCONSIN21998
BayfieldWISCONSIN21982
BashawWISCONSIN22015
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12021
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN11985
Maple GroveMICHIGAN11994
WilsonMICHIGAN11983
CunardMICHIGAN12018
IsabellaMICHIGAN12004
Bear LakeMICHIGAN12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.