BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Northern Rockies has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Northern Rockies: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red Crossbill In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.009.0
20264.10.009.0
20274.10.009.0
20284.10.009.0
20294.10.009.1

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount VernonOREGON1242024
CoolinIDAHO482023
Eagle RockOREGON461979
Rochat DivdeIDAHO422023
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON362024
LogdellOREGON352022
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA332024
Silver CreekOREGON322024
DonnellyOREGON272006
St MaryMONTANA251997
SilviesOREGON242024
Crazy WomanWYOMING232024
ChestnutMONTANA222017
GraniteOREGON222022
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA212022
LaurierWASHINGTON212022
Black Mtn.OREGON202004
KellerWASHINGTON182007
AlbeeOREGON172024
Hash RockOREGON162024
Pagil GulchMONTANA152023
DesolationOREGON152007
St RegisMONTANA142022
NinemileMONTANA142024
Howard Mdws.OREGON142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.