BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-45%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.001.7
20270.730.001.7
20280.720.001.7
20290.720.001.7
20300.710.001.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. GrahamARIZONA102025
Forest LakesARIZONA32006
AlpineARIZONA32025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32017
PrescottARIZONA22022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
WilliamsARIZONA22013
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22015
RuckerARIZONA21996
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22005
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22016
FlagstaffARIZONA12016
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
BlueARIZONA11988
PinetopARIZONA12022
Happy JackARIZONA12016
Carr MtnARIZONA12004
SprucedaleARIZONA12010
PortalARIZONA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.