BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+143%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.060.38
20260.220.060.38
20270.220.060.38
20280.220.060.38
20290.230.070.38

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS82022
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS52024
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE52021
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS41976
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS42023
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS32006
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
HuntingtonNEW-YORK31981
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS22019
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS22022
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS21968
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS22022
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS21993
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY21998
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND22024
MysticCONNECTICUT12019
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11984
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11976
WestbrookCONNECTICUT11999
WillimanticCONNECTICUT11977
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT11984
ShermanCONNECTICUT12008
GreenwichCONNECTICUT12000
WarrenCONNECTICUT12007
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.