BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.050.37
20270.210.060.37
20280.220.060.38
20290.220.060.38
20300.220.060.38

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS82022
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS72025
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE52021
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS41976
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS32006
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
HuntingtonNEW-YORK31981
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS22019
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS22022
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS21968
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS22022
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS21993
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY21998
MysticCONNECTICUT12019
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11984
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11976
WestbrookCONNECTICUT11999
WillimanticCONNECTICUT11977
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT11984
ShermanCONNECTICUT12008
GreenwichCONNECTICUT12000
WarrenCONNECTICUT12007
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT12016
GranbyCONNECTICUT12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.