BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.17–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.17–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.160.31
20260.240.160.32
20270.240.170.32
20280.250.170.32
20290.250.170.33

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SwainNEW-YORK92007
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA82024
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA72024
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA52023
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA52024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA42024
Cades CoveTENNESSEE42024
PattonPENNSYLVANIA31983
Newfound GapTENNESSEE32024
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA32024
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32010
VindexMARYLAND22008
JenningsMARYLAND22016
FinzelMARYLAND22010
Whitney PtNEW-YORK22010
McdonoughNEW-YORK22017
LisleNEW-YORK22013
DrydenNEW-YORK22022
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK22019
CentervilleNEW-YORK22012
S Berne 2NEW-YORK22024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA22022
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.