BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.26 (95% range 0.18–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.26 (95% range 0.18–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.170.31
20270.240.170.32
20280.250.170.32
20290.250.180.33
20300.260.180.33

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SwainNEW-YORK92007
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
Cades CoveTENNESSEE62025
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK42025
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA42025
Phillips CrNEW-YORK32025
PattonPENNSYLVANIA31983
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA32025
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA32024
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32010
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA32025
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA32025
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA32025
VindexMARYLAND22008
JenningsMARYLAND22016
FinzelMARYLAND22010
Whitney PtNEW-YORK22010
McdonoughNEW-YORK22017
LisleNEW-YORK22013
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK22019
CentervilleNEW-YORK22012
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA22025
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.