BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+272%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.18–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.18–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.160.45
20260.310.170.45
20270.320.170.46
20280.320.180.46
20290.330.180.47

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN82024
MatherWISCONSIN52023
CumberlandWISCONSIN42024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN32023
GreshamWISCONSIN32024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN32010
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21983
Belding 2MICHIGAN22019
LapeerMICHIGAN22023
RochesterMICHIGAN22005
PrincetonMINNESOTA22019
EdwardsMINNESOTA21987
ElderonWISCONSIN22012
Fall RiverWISCONSIN21999
EllisINDIANA12008
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12023
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12022
NashvilleMICHIGAN12008
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12004
MontereyMICHIGAN11991
RemusMICHIGAN12023
No BradleyMICHIGAN12023
OlaMICHIGAN12022
JuniataMICHIGAN12024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.