BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+270%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.19–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.19–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.170.45
20270.310.170.46
20280.320.180.46
20290.320.180.47
20300.330.190.47

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatherWISCONSIN52023
CumberlandWISCONSIN42024
CadottWISCONSIN32025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN32023
GreshamWISCONSIN32025
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN32010
ScottvilleMICHIGAN22025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21983
HungerfordMICHIGAN22025
Belding 2MICHIGAN22019
RochesterMICHIGAN22005
EdwardsMINNESOTA21987
ElderonWISCONSIN22012
SaxevilleWISCONSIN22025
N FreedomWISCONSIN22025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN21999
EllisINDIANA12008
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12022
NashvilleMICHIGAN12008
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12004
MontereyMICHIGAN11991
RemusMICHIGAN12023
No BradleyMICHIGAN12023
OlaMICHIGAN12025
JuniataMICHIGAN12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.